Science in 2020: Varsity predicts the future
Ellie Adams,Becky Jordan and James Elderfield use their powers of prediction to give us an insight into how science might change our world in the not-so-distant future
Ellie Adams
I predict a greater dependency on GM crops. Millions of farmers are already growing them, and more modified crops are being submitted to the EU for approval. Most of Hawaii’s papaya crop is GM, although these are not approved for sale in the EU. GM potatoes are now in their second year of three year field trials in Norfolk, and so far have successfully resisted all forms of late blight. Potatoes can grow in a variety of environments not normally suitable for crop growing, and the Desiree variety being trialled is even relatively drought resistant. Forms of herbicide resistant rice, such as LibertyLink, are now being grown, with further forms of GM rice being trialled, such as insect resistant and allergen free rice. Golden rice, a modified form of rice containing high levels of various essential nutrients, is set to be freely available to farmers in developing countries, and hopefully approved for consumption around the world, by 2014. With the population increasing so quickly, and areas of viable land becoming smaller due to climate change, this is one of the only ways to feed the growing number of mouths.
Becky Jordan
What transplant waiting list? With the opening of biobanks for stem cells and the first synthetic organ successfully transplanted, it’s only a matter of time before advances in stem cells and nanotechnology finally abolish the extensive transplant waiting lists. Just last year, the first transplant of a fully synthetic tissue – a trachea – was performed, saving the life of a cancer patient. The delicate synthetic material was lined with the patient’s own stem cells; not only was there no wait for a compatible donor, but there was no risk of rejection and no need for life-long immunosuppressants. The method is hoped to be used for other such tissue replacements in the near future, from blood vessels to noses. It’s not hard to imagine, then, that within the next two decades many parts of the human body will be easily replaceable without donors, and your relatives won’t have to give you a hand (or anything else for that matter).
James Elderfield
By 2020 the optical disc will be an obsolete storage medium. Over the past years DVD movie sales have been dropping rapidly, by as much as 40 per cent between years. This isn’t surprising with the rise of Blu-ray and its growing sales, but Blu-ray is not taking up the slack. Digital distribution is the rising star of media distribution. With over 80 per cent of UK households now with access to high speed broadband and this percentage growing, it is becoming easier and cheaper for the consumer to download at home. The optical disc (CD, DVD and Blu-ray) is supported by three main industries: film, music and games. In each of these areas digital distribution is becoming dominant with services such as Netflix, iTunes and Steam starting to out-compete physical media sales. It is less costly for the supplier and publisher, easier and often cheaper for the consumer and allows greater choice. For those rare moments when the internet isn’t available, portable solid state memory is capable of filling the gap. The increasing prevalence of laptops lacking in disc drives illustrates the limited lifespan of optical discs.
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