The US Open has a long tradition of rewarding audacity. Under the bright lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium, established champions often face unexpected challengers. The 2025 edition arrives with the usual top-seed intrigue, yet the most compelling storylines may emerge from players ranked outside the elite circle.

This year’s field features several men whose recent form, playing styles, and odds position them as prime candidates to disrupt expectations.

These dark horses blend raw talent with situational advantages, making them dangerous opponents in the season’s final Grand Slam.

From booming serves to gritty baseline craft, each brings a distinct weapon set that could thrive in New York’s fast-paced conditions. Below, we examine four standout contenders and explore why the US Open remains a fertile ground for breakthrough runs.

Sebastian Baez: Quietly Building Hardcourt Credentials

Despite a reputation forged on clay, Sebastian Baez has made notable hardcourt strides in 2025. Currently ranked No. 45 with odds of +42,000, his season includes a finals appearance in Los Cabos and a semifinal in Dallas. Baez excels in court coverage, retrieving relentlessly while waiting for opportune moments to flatten out shots.

This tactical patience, combined with improved serve placement, enables him to compete effectively in extended hardcourt rallies.

Often underestimated by top seeds, Baez can catch opponents off guard with his ability to absorb pace and redirect it with precision. His mental resilience in close sets further enhances his upset credentials.

While winning the title remains unlikely, his form suggests he could dismantle higher-ranked players en route to the second week. For those scanning beyond the obvious, Baez offers one of the most intriguing value plays in the draw.

Ben Shelton: Harnessing Home-Court Momentum

Ranked No. 6 with men’s US Open odds of +2,900, Ben Shelton enters the tournament on a surge. His summer hardcourt campaign included a title in Atlanta and a runner-up finish in Washington, D.C., reinforcing his status as one of the ATP’s most explosive young players.

Known for a blistering left-handed serve and an ability to flip defense into offense, Shelton thrives in tense moments, especially before a home crowd. The 2023 semifinalist has matured tactically while retaining the fearless shot-making that first drew attention.

His capacity to close tight sets with power under pressure makes him a threat to any opponent. With favorable seeding and strong physical conditioning, Shelton’s mix of athleticism and competitive fire gives him a realistic path to another deep Flushing Meadows run.

If the draw aligns, his second-week presence would surprise few but could still shift the tournament narrative.

Alexander Bublik: Thriving on Controlled Chaos

Alexander Bublik’s game defies convention, blending high-risk creativity with a towering serve. Ranked No. 25 and carrying +8,000 odds, he has shown greater consistency in 2025, reaching the Miami Open quarterfinals and notching several wins over Top 10 players.

His quick-strike style suits the US Open’s pace, while his net instincts shorten points and conserve energy over long matches. What sets Bublik apart is his capacity to disrupt opponents’ rhythm, forcing them into reactive patterns.

On days when his serve is clicking, he can hold with minimal strain and apply scoreboard pressure instantly. Yet unpredictability remains part of his charm, and his danger.

If momentum tips his way in early rounds, his unorthodox shot selection could unnerve even seasoned contenders. For fans and bettors seeking volatility with upside, Bublik embodies the high-risk, high-reward profile that flourishes in New York.

Francisco Cerúndolo: Beyond Clay Comfort

Long viewed as a clay-court specialist, Francisco Cerúndolo has quietly built a more rounded game in 2025.

Now ranked No. 24 and priced at +18,000 for the US Open, the Argentine impressed at the Cincinnati Masters with patient rallies and a more assertive serve. His heavy topspin forehand can pin even top-tier opponents deep, buying time to dictate points.

More importantly, his improved hardcourt movement allows him to endure lengthy exchanges without conceding control. Cerúndolo’s willingness to adapt tactics, mixing pace, angles, and depth, makes him a tricky read for aggressive shot-makers.

His stamina in five-set matches further boosts his upset potential, especially against higher seeds unaccustomed to sustained baseline pressure.

While his odds reflect past surface biases, his recent performances suggest those perceptions are outdated. In a volatile draw, his combination of grit and tactical variety could dismantle more heralded campaigns.

Why the US Open Magnifies Dark Horse Impact

The US Open’s blend of high-energy crowds, quick courts, and end-of-season fatigue creates fertile conditions for surprise runs. Aggressive servers, adaptable tacticians, and players peaking at the right time often exploit these dynamics.

Unlike earlier Grand Slams, the year’s accumulated data—surface performance, head-to-head records, and recent form- provides clearer indicators of potential breakthroughs.

Dark horses benefit from this environment, where the pressure tilts toward higher seeds burdened by expectations. For spectators, these dynamics amplify drama; for bettors, they open markets rich in mispriced opportunities.

The four contenders profiled here combine current form with stylistic advantages tailored to Flushing Meadows, underscoring how quickly narratives can shift in New York.

Strategic Considerations for Spotting Value Picks

Identifying true dark horses requires more than fading the favorites. Timing matters—peaking performance in late-summer hardcourt events often signals readiness for New York. Fitness and match endurance play critical roles, as the US Open’s five-set format rewards sustained physical output.

Versatility across conditions also counts; the ability to adjust to day or night matches, shifting weather, and varying court speeds is vital.

For bettors, examining quarter-by-quarter draw positions can reveal pathways to deep runs, especially if early rounds feature opponents with exploitable weaknesses. In 2025, Shelton, Cerúndolo, Bublik, and Baez check several of these boxes, making them worth close monitoring as the draw unfolds.

Looking Ahead: Where Upsets Shape Legacies

Every US Open produces moments that redefine careers, often sparked by players outside the spotlight. This year’s dark horses carry the blend of skill, resilience, and momentum needed to seize those moments.

Whether it’s Shelton feeding off the home crowd, Cerúndolo translating clay-born patience to hardcourts, Bublik thriving in unpredictability, or Baez grinding down overconfident seeds, each has a path to significance.

For fans, tracking these runs deepens engagement; for bettors, it’s an exercise in spotting opportunity before consensus catches up. The coming fortnight in New York will test not just talent but adaptability under relentless pressure.

In a tournament where history favors the bold, these challengers are poised to write chapters that endure well beyond the final ball struck.

*Content reflects information available as of 2025/08/12; subject to change.

Please gamble responsibly.