A report by the Office for Students (OfS) has found that Cambridge is following national trends in awarding a higher proportion of first class degrees, but it may have also been the most difficult institution in the country for students to secure a first in 2024.

The report found that Cambridge students graduating in 2023-24 were 8.7 percentage points less likely to receive a first when compared to the average sector attainment baseline from 2010-11, with the effect of explanatory variables accounted for. The OfS referred to this score as “unexplained attainment”. The variables that the report controlled for included students’ entry grades – such as A-levels – as well as subjects and ages.

For 2023-24, Cambridge had the widest negative unexplained attainment gap from the 2010-11 baseline of all 143 English degree-awarding institutions measured. This indicates that for 2023-24, Cambridge graduates were the least likely to receive a first compared to the 2010-11 national benchmark, once accounting for explanatory variables.

The data therefore suggests that for 2023-24, Cambridge could have been the most stringent institution when it comes to awarding firsts. However, Cambridge’s unexplained lack of firsts could also be due to other factors not accounted for within the modelling.

The report also indicates that Cambridge’s negative unexplained attainment gap has narrowed since 2010, when it was 16.6% below the national average.

Despite having the widest negative unexplained attainment gap in 2023-24, the report also found that Cambridge is following national trends in awarding a higher proportion of firsts. In 2010-11, 26.1% of the grades awarded were first class, compared to 33.3% in 2023-24, and its peak of 48.8% in 2019-20.

According to their analysis, the OfS believes part of this rise is ‘unexplained’ when compared to how many firsts were awarded in 2010, and accounting for controlled variables.

Cambridge still gives out a comparable proportion of firsts to Oxford, where 34.1% of degrees are firsts, and both institutions gave proportionally fewer firsts compared to Durham (at 39.6%), UCL (at 41.0%), and Imperial (at 52.5%) in 2023-24.

According to the report, the universities of Durham and East London have recorded the largest unexplained increase in firsts since 2010-11, with Cambridge’s increase sitting around the average for English institutions. However, most universities have seen a drop in proportion of firsts since the years when exams were disrupted by Covid.

The OfS says that Cambridge’s grade inflation could be because of changes to how exams are graded, or because of other factors such as improved teaching.

Responding to the OfS report, a spokesperson for the University of Cambridge noted that the OfS’ findings do not take into account different assessment types, stating: “The OfS analysis compares current outcomes to a historical sector baseline using a specific statistical method. It does not capture differences in assessment models or institutional approaches to maintaining standards, and should not be interpreted as a judgement on academic quality or student achievement.”

After publishing the report, Jean Arnold, deputy director of quality at the OfS, said: “We encourage all institutions to continue to review their marking and assessment policies to ensure their awards properly reflect student achievement and protect public confidence in higher education.”

However, not all have confidence in the OfS’s report. Paul Ashwin, professor of higher education at the University of Lancaster, told Times Higher Education that “this is a very political document answering policymakers’ concerns about grade inflation”.

He added: “I’m not sure it particularly says anything meaningful about grade inflation, given that you can only talk meaningfully about grade inflation at the level of the programme.”

A spokesperson for the OfS told Varsity: "Higher education institutions and sector bodies like Universities UK have taken positive steps to address the risk of grade inflation becoming embedded in the system. The findings we’ve set out show that important work is having an impact.

“There is much more to be done. English higher education has a deservedly great reputation, and we welcome the continued efforts of institutions to preserve that reputation and maintain public confidence in the value of a degree.”