Last week, Chris Grayling became the first Conservative Cabinet Minister to give a clear indication that he is preparing to campaign for Britain to leave the European Union. He was quoted as saying that staying in the EU would be “disastrous” for Britain in an article for the Telegraph. However, his piece was not simply a call to arms for the out campaign. Its contradictions highlight the uneasy tensions brewing as Cameron continues his renegotiations with EU counterparts.

Grayling’s article is essentially a game of two halves. In the first he seeks to outline the main problems with the European Union. He argues that when Britain joined the Common Market in 1973, it was expected that the new arrangement would simply make it easier for Britain to trade with the continent. In reality, “instead of a Common Market, we had a European Union”. For Grayling, Europe has been on a slippery slope towards ever closer union and the British public have not had a chance to have a say on it for far too long. What started off as a series of trade agreements has, in his view, turned into a Union in which decisions are imposed upon Britain, undermining its sovereignty and national government. In addition, he looks to recent crises in the Eurozone, as well as what he calls “the migration challenge”, bemused at how calls for “More Europe” have won the day in responses to these issues. According to Grayling, the move towards what he sees as greater political union “is a path that the UK will not and should not follow”.

At this point one might expect the minister to announce that, whatever the outcome of Cameron’s renegotiations, he will be campaigning for Britain to leave the EU, but curiously there is an abrupt change of tone. He suddenly announces that he “also strongly believe[s] that David Cameron is right to seek new terms for our membership” and that he believes that it is “imperative that his renegotiation takes place and delivers as much potential change as possible.” He then goes on to welcome the debate that will follow, not explicitly outlining exactly what side he will be on because the renegotiations have not concluded, but calling for all Conservatives to respect each other’s views and conduct the debate “with authenticity, honesty and decency”. Importantly, he argues that whatever the outcome, it is imperative that the party unites to prevent “the most Left-wing and extreme opposition” exploiting that division to form a government.

With this article Grayling has achieved what he set out to do. It is almost inconceivable that after declaring himself a Eurosceptic and clearly outlining his arguments for Brexit, Cameron’s renegotiations will come anywhere near changing his mind on the issue. But he has stopped short of firing the starting gun on the debate.

David Cameron is all too aware of the divisions within the Conservative party and over the last couple of weeks has tried to set out the rules of engagement for his ministers as clearly as possible. First, he gave them a free vote on the issue, which many, such as Grayling, clearly welcomed. In a three page letter to ministers Cameron also urged them not to make any big statements on the question until his renegotiations have been completed, something which Grayling seems to have ignored. Then comes the very tricky issue of how ministers continue with normal government business, especially that concerning the EU, in the middle of such an important debate. Cameron made clear that “all other EU-related business… will continue to be subject to the normal rules of collective responsibility”.  However, in relation to the Eurosceptics who choose not to support the government’s position, they will not be allowed to use evidence from information they are privy to in making the case to leave. Exactly where that line is drawn, however, is unclear. Eurosceptics in parliament will be allowed to declare their position when asked, but will not be allowed to speak about their arguments at length, in contrast to those who support the government’s position. Clearly these instructions may become a cause for deep resentment.  

It is unclear how long it will be before Cameron’s “rules” are chucked out of the window. The uneasy truce between Europhiles and Eurosceptics appears to be fracturing. The real question is, exactly how divisive an issue will Europe become for the Tories? Will they be able to get back on their feet in time for the 2020 election and present a united front?