Advanced ecological modeling is giving scientists and policymakers new ways to understand when fragile coastal ecosystems cross the line from resilience to collapse. At the center of this work is environmental scientist Taylor Thomson, whose research demonstrates how mathematical models can quantify the delicate balance between nutrient inputs, keystone species survival, and overall ecosystem stability.

Thomson’s master’s research at Waikato University is focused on developing predictive frameworks capable of identifying critical transition points in estuarine systems. His models integrate keystone species dynamics, nutrient fluxes, and sediment processes to forecast when once-healthy ecosystems may shift irreversibly into degraded states.

“What I’m trying to do is make a model using a few keystone species in the environment and we’re influencing them with nutrients and sediments to identify in how many years we expect that proverbial ball to go over the hill,” Thomson explained, describing the mathematical foundation of his predictive approach.

The work addresses a long-standing challenge in ecology: how gradual, seemingly manageable changes in environmental conditions can trigger sudden and nonlinear tipping points. Traditional monitoring often detects degradation only after these thresholds have been passed, leaving councils and conservationists with expensive restoration as the only option.

Taylor Thomson’s Models Quantify Ecosystem Transitions

At the core of Thomson’s framework is mamoni, a clam species that functions as both an indicator and a driver of estuarine health. These clams filter water through sediments, recycle nutrients, and sustain the chemical balance that supports biodiversity. But their sensitivity to rising nitrogen and phosphorus levels makes them especially useful for predicting ecological collapse.

When nutrient inputs exceed tolerable thresholds, mamoni populations crash, disrupting nutrient cycling and triggering algal blooms. The resulting oxygen depletion sets off feedback loops that lock estuaries into degraded, muddy-bottom states.

By embedding these biological relationships into mathematical models, Thomson moves beyond simple correlations. His framework captures the causal pathways that underlie ecosystem transitions, allowing managers to simulate how systems will respond under different nutrient-loading scenarios.

This work draws on extensive field validation. As an environmental monitoring officer with the Waikato Regional Council, Thomson spent years collecting water samples, documenting species abundances, and tracking habitat conditions. These datasets now underpin his models, ensuring predictions are grounded in real-world complexity.

A particular strength of the models is their handling of time lags. Nutrient pollution does not always appear immediately in coastal waters; groundwater transport can delay impacts by years or even decades. Thomson’s approach accounts for these temporal dynamics, coupling hydrological transport mechanisms with biological responses to capture the full trajectory of ecosystem change.

Making Complex Science Accessible

For all their technical sophistication, Thomson’s models are designed to be accessible beyond academia. Through his involvement with Field-Based STEM, he translates graduate-level research into classroom activities for students across New Zealand.

“Field-based STEM opens so many doors to kids and teachers just to experience all these things that they never would otherwise,” Thomson said. His outreach work has seen schoolchildren replicate the same water quality assessments he uses in his research, demystifying ecological modeling by grounding it in hands-on experience.

This effort stems from his recognition that science communication is as critical as science itself. During his monitoring work, he often found community members assuming his water sampling was related to COVID-19 testing rather than nutrient pollution, a misunderstanding that underscored how easily technical work can be misinterpreted without clear engagement.

Thomson’s interdisciplinary training—combining environmental science with psychology—shapes his communication strategies. By understanding how people process and retain scientific information, he adapts complex ecological concepts into formats that resonate with students, community groups, and policymakers alike.

Bridging Research and Real-World Management

Now serving as an Environment Specialist at BHP, Thomson applies his predictive models in industrial contexts, testing how ecological frameworks can inform environmental compliance and management decisions. The role provides a unique opportunity to validate academic research in high-stakes, real-world scenarios.

The combination of rigorous modeling and effective communication represents a growing paradigm in environmental science: research that not only advances theory but also equips practitioners with tools for immediate action.

As coastal ecosystems worldwide face intensifying pressures from climate change, population growth, and industrial development, the need for such predictive models is only increasing. Thomson’s work offers councils, conservationists, and communities a way to anticipate tipping points before they occur—shifting environmental management from reaction to prevention.