A YouGov poll conducted this week posed the question: “If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?” The result was a 16-point lead for the Conservatives (at 40 per cent) ahead of Labour (24 per cent), UKIP (14 per cent) and the Liberal Democrats (11 per cent). These figures have been broadly the same since Jeremy Corbyn became leader of the opposition a little over two years ago. It has led many, including a commentator for Varsity last week, to argue that enough is enough, that the experiment has failed, and Labour needs new leadership if it is to become a credible force in British politics once again.

This is an easy argument to make, especially given such polling figures. However, while Corbyn-bashing is easy, transforming Labour from the opposition to the government will not come about by merely a change of management. The change Labour needs to undergo runs deeper than its leader: the problems it faces reflect divisions in British social and economic life that go beyond MPs and politicos.

“The change Labour needs to undergo runs deeper than its leader”

There is a sense that Labour represents the nice party, with the Tories firmly occupying the other side of the coin. And while the reality is obviously not quite so simple, their history in many ways confirms this: the minimum wage was introduced in the late 90s under Labour, and so too were many of the provisions of the welfare state in the 1950s and 60s. However, at some point in the last 20 years, Labour stopped trying to occupy its traditional territory as the antidote to Tory cruelty and became itself a party interested only in its own re-election. It moved further and further from what it stood for, first closer to the centre and then even flirting with the centre-right in a bid to pick up marginal Tory voters. While it was a temporary success at the ballot box, this move proved detrimental to the wellbeing of the party’s very foundation. The product of this is a set of Labour MP’s who no longer belong to the party of Keir Hardie or Clement Attlee but instead occupy a murky, unclear ground between red and blue. Liz Kendall, for example, while failing disastrously in her bid for the leadership of the party in 2015, managed to secure the 35 nominations necessary to stand for its leadership. It was in this transitory atmosphere that ‘Jez we can!’ Corbyn was elected.

At the UK’s general election in 2010, UKIP received just under one million votes, a number they increased to just under four million in 2015 when Ed Miliband was leading Labour. Furthermore, the most damaging loss Labour has suffered in recent years came with their annihilation in Scotland, where members of the shadow cabinet were thrashed by first-time SNP candidates. Such patterns have been mirrored across Europe in the years since the economic crash in 2008.  Indeed, the German Social Democrats have been averaging around 20% per cent in the polls ahead of their general election later this year. Decline has become a common theme across Europe’s centre left.

Labour’s decline, therefore, did not start with Corbyn. The electorate were happy enough to believe that all of the Conservative’s selective and merciless austerity measures were necessary following the economy David Cameron inherited in 2010, yet seem to blame Corbyn for what has been over a decade of gradual decline. However, even if we accept the need for a change in Labour leadership, we must ask who could follow. Owen Smith ran a campaign in which he spent the summer agreeing with Corbyn with the addition that there should be a second EU referendum. This is something which would surely only further damage Labour’s position further in the eye’s of the electorate, with YouGov revealing that even the majority of Remain voters believe Parliament should respect the result of 23rd June.  Moreover, many of the other would-be leaders have similar problems, the major one with Jess Phillips being her anonymity. 

The aforementioned article made a plea for a charismatic leader for Britain’s left: a Bernie, an Elizabeth Warren or even a Justin Trudeau. The problem with this claim is that it ignores the profound and unquestionable excitement Corbyn’s election has sparked, especially among younger voters, and its impact upon Labour Party membership, which is now well over double that of the Conservatives.

“it ignores the profound and unquestionable excitement Corbyn’s election has sparked”

Now, I am not arguing that Jeremy Corbyn has led the party exceptionally since his election in 2015. I think there have been many errors and embarrassments, with his Chancellor’s decision to bring in Mao’s Little Red Book along to Parliament being foremost among them. Equally, however, I don’t believe that simply a change in leader will solve Labour’s woes. There is a problem at the heart of the Labour Party, a problem which has obscured their ability to tackle the Conservatives as well as they should, particularly considering the Tories’ current weaknesses, with their apparent strength only coming from a comparison with the opposition.

Why are there so many Iron Ladies?

I believe that Corbyn should be given more time, with a truly cooperative parliamentary party, to put forward a real alternative to the current politics of the Conservatives, who only look respectable in comparison to events across the Atlantic. The Labour Party will be tested this week with by-elections in both Stoke-on-Trent and Copeland. Corbyn has been campaigning frequently with Gillian Troughton and Gareth Snell. Corbyn’s leadership doesn’t rest solely upon the outcome of these by-elections, but the results will help shape his coverage in the media which has been so crucial and, at times, so damaging to the public’s perception of his leadership. These by-elections and future votes can be won with a radical programme of anti-austerity, progressive taxation and free higher education. They will be lost, however, by continued in-fighting and factionalism. Under Corbyn the Labour Party could prove a credible opposition and, furthermore, a realistic government. I hope that dissenters from within the party alongside the tabloid press give Jeremy Corbyn the chance his mandate deserves