If I had written this article a few months ago, it would read very differently to this one. Until recently, I was utterly convinced of the impossibility of Marine Le Pen, the leader of the right-wing Front National in France, winning the presidency in the election later this year. However, events and changing circumstances in France (let alone those around the world) are enough to convince me that her victory is becoming more likely every day. I would now find it more of a shock if she were defeated in April and May than if she were to win. It is certainly a frightening position to be in – so how did we get here?

Marine Le Pen has been the leader of the far right, nationalist Front National (FN) in France since January 2011, taking over from her father Jean-Marie. Her leadership, as has been well documented, has been one of attempting to reform the image of the FN as a hard-right party in order to appeal to a wider electorate – and it’s working. Recent polls for the first round of voting have her leading François Fillon, candidate for the centre-right Les Républicains, by between 1 and 4 percentage points. In the most recent of these polls, her lead over Fillon is increasing. Having said that, polls do indicate that if these two candidates make it to the second round run-off for the presidency in May, Le Pen would lose out. Yet I still don’t consider predicting a FN victory to be particularly controversial.

For one thing, a recent scandal has been engulfing the frontrunner for the presidency, Fillon. It is alleged that his wife was paid for political work that she did not actually carry out. As I write this, it is being reported that police have questioned Fillon and his wife about the allegations. It remains to be seen what impact this will have on his campaign, but I would not be surprised if the scandal continues to significantly affect him as the days go on. In fact, more recent polling has shown the allegations already causing a drop in Fillon’s vote share. This can only be a good thing for Le Pen.

It is not only troubles on the right playing into the hands of the FN. On the left of French politics, there are considerable divisions and cause for concern. The third candidate considered a viable bet to reach the Elysée Palace in May is Emmanuel Macron, who resigned from President François Hollande’s government last summer to launch his centrist presidential campaign for his own party ‘En Marche!’ (Onwards). Meanwhile, the candidate of the ruling Parti Socialiste (PS) is Benoit Hamon – the most left-wing result possible from the primary the PS conducted to choose their nominee. Macron has the best chance of upsetting the right-wing victory in this election, yet those on the left will not unite behind him for the greater good. This is perhaps understandable – his resignation caused considerable embarrassment for the government – but surely all can recognise the necessity of throwing their weight behind a candidate with a real chance of winning?

“Meanwhile, Le Pen is able to continue her agenda of preying upon pre-existing divisions and worries in French society.”

Meanwhile, Le Pen is able to continue her agenda of preying upon pre-existing divisions and worries in French society. The recent terrorist attacks on French soil have reinforced and renewed tensions in the country, and if there is anything we’ve learned from observing politics over the last year, it is that fear is all too easy to exploit. Tactics such as stirring up anti-immigration feeling when people are frightened are below the dignity of what politics should be, and must be denounced on all sides if we hope to retain any sense of decency in our political discourse.

François Fillon: the rise of the French Thatcher

Le Pen knows exactly what she is doing. She adapts policy to appeal to the widest portion of the electorate possible – for example, she has been advocating for an exit from the Euro, rather than from the EU as a whole. We should be very wary of how FN policy may adapt further, and in more sinister ways, if Le Pen does emerge victorious. I’ve made lots of political predictions over the past 12 months, many of which were wrong. I hope I am wrong about this one