It’s that time of year again; campaigns have been launched, nominations announced, BAFTAs awarded: and, lo and behold, the Academy Awards are almost upon us. Anticipating the biggest night of the Hollywood calendar, here are our thoughts on who will win, who should win and who should have been nominated.
Best Original Score
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should win: Babylon
Should have got a look in: The Batman, Women Talking
The momentum initially seemed to be with Babylon, but All Quiet on the Western Front has been picking up a fair few trophies recently and is in a good position to take home the Oscar. In a fairer world, Hildur Guðnadóttir would have been recognised for her sparingly used, but powerful work in Women Talking, as well as Michael Giacchino for The Batman: who, shockingly, failed to even make the Academy’s shortlist.
Best Cinematography
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should win: Tár
Should have got a look in: Top Gun: Maverick, Nope
After a controversial snub for Top Gun: Maverick, this is likely to be another tech win for All Quiet on the Western Front. War films are ten-a-penny in this category; it would be interesting for the Academy to recognise a less conventional nomination like Tár.
Best International Feature Film
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should win: The Quiet Girl
Should have got a look in: Decision to Leave, Saint Omer
There’s no question here; as the resident Best Picture nominee, this will go to (you guessed it) All Quiet on the Western Front. Ireland is having a stellar awards season (almost half of the male acting nominees are Irish!) and their submission, The Quiet Girl, is the best in the category. The best film not to have been nominated though? Look no further than Decision to Leave from South Korea, a shameful omission that we considered a no-brainer.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should win: Women Talking
Should have got a look in: The Quiet Girl, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Okay, so it’s getting a bit ridiculous now — but with the Academy opting to leave out The Whale, and a coveted BAFTA win under its belt, this looks like All Quiet on the Western Front’s award to lose. Women Talking worked for some of us and not for others — but it’s all about the dialogue, and would be the most deserving victor here.
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should have got a look in: Aftersun, Nope
It’s a two-horse race here between two Best Picture favourites, Everything Everywhere All At Once and The Banshees of Inisherin. We’re giving a slight edge to Banshees, but, if it goes to Everything Everywhere, consider that film’s Best Picture win a done deal.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Should win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Should have got a look in: Mark Rylance (Bones and All), Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
With the exception of BAFTA, this has been a bona fide sweep for Ke Huy Quan, maybe the most likeable man in showbiz. Odds are he’ll take the Oscar too; he’s got a great comeback narrative and looks like he’s having the time of his life on the awards circuit; people want to see him up on that stage, and often that’s all you need to get the win.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Should win: Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Should have got a look in: Nina Hoss (Tár), Samantha Morton (She Said)
In the infamous words of Ariana DeBose, “Angela Bassett did the thing”! Or rather she’s going to do the thing and win herself an overdue Oscar. The best case scenario is an upset from Stephanie Hsu, the better half of Everything Everywhere’s double nomination in this category (sorry Jamie Lee Curtis). But, if Judd Hirsch can make it into Supporting Actor for The Fabelmans with less than ten minutes of screen time, then so should Samantha Morton for her arresting performance in one of 2022’s less successful awards hopefuls, She Said.
Best Actor
Will win: Austin Butler (Elvis)
Should win: Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Should have got a look in: Felix Kammerer (All Quiet on the Western Front), Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)
As much goodwill as there is for Brendan Fraser personally, the fact that there’s not nearly as much goodwill for his film, The Whale, has seen him concede frontrunner status to Austin Butler’s prosthetics-clad, Oscar-baiting turn as the King of Rock and Roll . The dream would be Paul Mescal — but we recognise that a nomination is really its own win for his understated performance, hardly the Oscars’ forte. The Academy will cave to their usual instincts and choose Butler.
Best Actress
Will win: Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Should win: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Should have got a look in: Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Vicky Krieps (Corsage)
It feels like Michelle Yeoh’s moment: her performance in Everything Everywhere is the highlight of a groundbreaking career and, would be the first win for an Asian actress in this category. Instead, we think the Academy will award Cate Blanchett a third Oscar for her no less brilliant work in Tár. Despite having been nominated at almost all the major precursors, Danielle Deadwyler was snubbed here; accuse the Andrea Riseborough campaign of nomination theft at the risk of ignoring the Ana de Armas-shaped elephant in the room.
Best Director
Will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Should win: Todd Field (Tár)
Should have got a look in: Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Charlotte Welles (Aftersun)
After failing to nab any major precursors, Steven Spielberg’s winning chances have pretty much been laid to rest (in fact The Fabelmans looks likely to go home empty-handed). In his place, the buzz seems to be surrounding the Daniels, who manage to keep grounded a film in real danger of collapsing under its own weight. But, the same is true of Todd Field, who would be a satisfying surprise win.
Best Picture
Will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should have got a look in: Aftersun, Nope
This year seems to be the rare case where an early Best Picture hopeful from way back in May 2022 might actually end up taking home the top prize. As we saw last year with CODA’s unexpected victory, a lot can change in the final campaign push, but we’re happy with any success for this wonderfully original film, a refreshing departure from the usual fare favoured by the Academy.
