This awards season nothing seems to be able to stop the joyous feel-good musical that is Damien Chazelle’s La La Land lead, the movie tying Titanic and All About Eve with 14 Academy Award nominations. Its success at this year’s Oscars seems inevitable, yet there are signs highlighting the strong possibility of Moonlight overtaking La La Land for Best Picture this year.

La La Land perfectly captures the Hollywood nostalgia that resonates with Oscar voters. However, being the leader in nominations doesn’t always mean a successful Oscar night. Last year’s The Revenant led the pack with nine nominations yet only won three in the end. Similarly, Lincoln only took home two awards after scoring twelve nominations. Moreover, there has been an increasing backlash towards La La Land’s numerous plaudits, and voters might question whether giving this film another win will seem like another example of Hollywood congratulating itself.

“With the common stereotype of the Hollywood scene being cliquey, it is refreshing to see people beginning to recognise films that don’t centre around stories of white people”

At the beginning of the awards season,  La La Land’s strongest competitor was Manchester by the Sea. However, La La Land’s loss in the Best Picture (Drama) category in the Golden Globes to Moonlight's Best Picture (Drama) category is a clear sign of voter momentum shifting towards Barry Jenkins’ coming-of-age drama. Moonlight is an emotional journey with moving performances from Best Supporting Actor/Actress nominees Mahershala Ali and Naomie Harris, and its treatment of such heavy themes has been widely acclaimed, centring around a closeted black man trying to live life in a Miami neighbourhood.

This year we have seen a record breaking number of nominations for actors of colour, including Denzel Washington and Viola Davis for their incredible performances in Fences. Whether or not this is a response to the #OscarsSoWhite controversy, this year’s nominees still underline the fact that Oscar voters are moving out of their usual bubble. With the common stereotype of the Hollywood scene being cliquey, it is refreshing to see people beginning to recognise films that don’t centre around stories of white people. 

Moonlight’s win at the Globes this year was its only one, just as 12 Years a Slave won a few years ago. The ‘rivalry’ between the escapist and dreamy La La Land and the realistic and honest Moonlight draws strong comparisons with previous years’ awards. The similarly escapist and thrilling space adventure Gravity was overtaken in 2014 by the brutal examination of American slavery in 12 Years a Slave. One could offer a counterexample: Birdman, a film appreciating the art of acting (and equally navel-gazing) took home the grand prize against the coming-of-age indie film Boyhood. But with the change in the Academy’s membership, Moonlight’s chances in bringing home Best Picture are definitely increasing. 

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Moonlight’s Globes win, together with the universally positive response towards the film, suggests it does have a chance of besting La La Land at the Academy Awards this year. With this year being such a divisive year in America, especially with the 2016 elections (the Hollywood left have spoken up against the new administration) such sentiments could influence the Academy when it comes to voting. A win for Moonlight would show a strong stance of support towards two widely oppressed minority groups. Regardless of whatever political or social discussions behind this, Moonlight deserves the spotlight in this overtly cliquey and highly competitive industry